Some Councils Face 400% Increase in Housing Targets, BBC Analysis Reveals
New analysis by BBC Verify has revealed that some local councils in England would need to increase their house building by at least five times to meet new government targets. The findings come as part of a comprehensive investigation into local authority housing delivery across the country.
Unprecedented Targets
The BBC's analysis shows that 16 local authorities across England have been given annual targets that are 400% or more than what they have recently delivered. Among the most striking examples is the London Borough of Kensington and Chelsea, which has been set a target nearly 22 times its recent average.
The borough has been tasked with delivering 5,107 new homes annually for the next five years, despite only achieving an average of 236 net additional dwellings between 2021-22 and 2023-24. While the borough has shown willingness to approve new developments, with an 89% approval rate for planning applications (compared to the national rate of 71%), questions remain about the feasibility of such ambitious targets.
Local Challenges
Several local authorities across England are grappling with dramatic increases in their housing targets. In Portsmouth, the council must deliver 1,021 new homes annually - nearly nine times their recent average of just 120 homes. Despite approving over 4,000 new homes in 2023 and 2024, Portsmouth's Cabinet Member for Housing, Councillor Darren Sanders, argues the target is unrealistic given the city's unique geography. "Most of the city is an island," he explained, noting the constraints of dense population and "important heritage and natural assets."
Sevenoaks in Kent faces similar pressure, with targets requiring five times their current delivery rate. While Councillor Julia Thornton emphasised protecting greenbelt land as a "top priority," she acknowledged: "We will have a duty to do everything possible to meet the government's new housing targets."
In Hastings, the council must increase its housing delivery to 710 homes annually, five times their recent average of 142. The coastal town approved 75% of residential planning applications in the year to June 2024, above the national average, yet still faces significant challenges in meeting these elevated targets.
The London Borough of Kensington and Chelsea perhaps faces the most striking challenge. Councillor Elizabeth Campbell, the borough's leader, described the approach as "out of touch to let algorithms set targets without understanding local context," noting that the borough is only 4.5 miles squared and already densely built. However, she did point to two major development sites in the borough that would provide 6,000 new homes in total, though this still falls far short of the annual target of 5,107 homes.
New BBC Tracker Tool
To help the public understand and monitor these ambitious housing goals, the BBC has launched a comprehensive interactive online tool that allows residents to track house building progress in their local area. The tracker, developed by BBC Verify, offers unprecedented transparency into local housing development and targets.
By simply entering their postcode into the BBC News Housing Tracker, residents can access detailed information about housing development in their district. The tool provides current house building rates, comparing recent delivery with new government targets. It also shows the percentage of planning applications approved in their area compared to the national average of 71%, offering insight into whether local councils are facilitating or hindering development.
The tracker will be regularly updated as new official data becomes available, making it a valuable resource for monitoring progress towards the government's ambitious 1.5 million homes target. BBC Verify's tool processes local data from multiple sources, including annual net additional dwellings required, actual dwellings created since 2021, and recent residential planning decisions by councils.
Developed by BBC's Allison Shultes, Scott Jarvis and Steven Connor, the tracker represents a significant step forward in making complex housing data accessible to the public. It enables residents to hold both local and national government accountable for their housing commitments while providing valuable context about the challenges and progress in their area.
Wider Context
These demanding local targets are pieces of a much larger puzzle: the government's ambitious plan to deliver 1.5 million new homes in England over the next five years. This national target translates to approximately 300,000 new homes annually - a level of house building not witnessed in England since the 1970s. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has positioned this specific target as a way to "give the British people the power to hold our feet to the fire."
The scale of this ambition becomes clearer when compared to recent building rates. Over the past decade, annual house building has consistently fallen short of such numbers, making the target particularly challenging. The government has described its objective as "hugely ambitious" - an assessment that housing experts widely agree with.
Housing Minister Matthew Pennycook has taken a firm stance on implementation, indicating that the government is prepared to take decisive action if councils fail to meet their targets. In a recent BBC interview, he stated: "The government can take a local plan off a local authority that is resisting putting one in place, and we are absolutely willing to do it, if we have evidence that [they] are refusing to comply." This represents a significant shift towards central government intervention in local planning processes.
The government argues that it has "inherited the worst housing crisis in living memory" and insists that "all areas must play their part." To facilitate this, they have outlined "a major planning overhaul" aimed at removing barriers to building and ensuring new homes are built in areas of greatest need. However, this centralised approach has met with resistance from some local authorities who argue that it fails to account for their unique local circumstances and constraints.
Industry Challenges
The government's ambitious housing targets face a complex web of obstacles that extend far beyond local authority capacity. These challenges paint a picture of an industry grappling with multiple systemic issues that could significantly impact the delivery of new homes.
A critical challenge is the construction industry's widespread skills shortage. The Construction Industry Training Board estimates that the sector needs to attract 50,300 additional workers annually just to meet expected work levels. This shortage has been exacerbated by an aging workforce and the impact of Brexit, according to the Home Builders Federation, creating a significant barrier to increased construction.
Material supply presents another substantial hurdle. The Construction Leadership Council has issued warnings about shortages of fundamental building materials, including bricks and timber. These supply chain constraints could severely hamper the government's ability to approach its targets, even if other obstacles are overcome.
Perhaps most significantly, the commercial dynamics of private housebuilding present a fundamental challenge to accelerated delivery. The Competition and Markets Authority's February 2024 report revealed a stark reality: "private developers produce houses at a rate at which they can be sold without needing to reduce their prices." This commercial strategy effectively means that private housebuilders deliberately control supply to maintain profit margins, regardless of government targets.
This market dynamic is reflected in recent statistics, with residential planning permissions in England hitting record lows in the year to June 2024. Notably, this decline wasn't due to councils refusing applications - instead, it reflected a collapse in applications from private builders. Industry analysts attribute this to the combined impact of elevated mortgage rates and house prices that remain high relative to average incomes, creating affordability challenges for potential buyers.
Given these challenges, many housing experts argue that meeting the government's targets will require a fundamental shift in approach. Some suggest that a significant increase in Whitehall grants to not-for-profit local housing associations will be essential, enabling them to build tens of thousands of new social and affordable homes for rent in the coming years. This could provide a crucial alternative delivery mechanism that isn't constrained by the same commercial considerations as private developers.
